Medicare part d premiums are climbing 50% in 2027 for enrollees who stay in their current drug plan, and switching before December 7 avoids the increase.
2027 Premium Increase: What the Estimate Means
A KFF Health News report by Phil Galewitz, published October 30, 2026, describes a KFF analysis of stand-alone Medicare Part D prescription drug plans. The analysis estimates that their average monthly premium will rise from $34 to $51 in 2027 if current enrollees keep their existing plans.
That 50% figure is an average estimate for people who stay in their current stand-alone plan. It is not a prediction that every enrollee’s premium will rise by 50%. An individual plan’s 2027 premium and total costs depend on the plan, location, prescriptions, deductible, and cost-sharing rules.
The KFF report describes Robert Travis Scott of Abingdon, Virginia, who received notice that his AARP-UnitedHealthcare plan premium would rise from $39.60 per month in 2026 to $121.90 in 2027. After comparing options online, he found a Humana plan listed at $19.30 per month with similar benefits. His reported potential savings were about $1,000 for the year. This is one person’s comparison; plan availability, formularies, and costs differ by location and prescription list. If you would rather have a licensed agent run this comparison for you, VerifiedAgent’s Virginia page lets you look up local agents and check a license and National Producer Number before you share your prescription list.
KFF estimates that 10.4 million people would pay a higher premium in 2027 if they stayed in their current plan. That figure covers 76% of stand-alone Part D enrollees who do not receive low-income subsidies. The full KFF analysis of 2027 Part D premiums and cost sharing also estimates that 4.1 million people currently enrolled in zero-premium stand-alone plans will pay a premium in 2027 because no zero-premium stand-alone plans will be available.
These findings concern stand-alone drug plans, commonly used by people enrolled in Original Medicare. Medicare Advantage plans that include drug coverage are a different plan category and have different premium estimates.
CMS and KFF Estimates: Why the Figures Differ
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services projects that the average monthly premium for stand-alone Part D plans will rise from $35.09 in 2026 to $36 in 2027. In its September 28, 2026 announcement, CMS also says that 88% of non-low-income beneficiaries will have access to a basic Part D plan costing $10.30 or less.
The two estimates address different scenarios. KFF’s $51 estimate assumes current enrollees remain in the same plans, using June 2026 enrollment. CMS’s $36 projection reflects a national average based on September 2026 enrollment. KFF notes that CMS may have assumed beneficiaries switch to lower-cost options; CMS has not explained its calculation method in detail.
In consumer terms, $51 illustrates the potential cost if current enrollees stay put. The CMS estimate is a marketwide average that may reflect plan changes. Actual premiums and total spending vary by plan and individual. Shopping is the step that can help determine whether a lower-cost plan is suitable for a specific prescription list.
Compare Total Annual Cost, Not Just Premiums
A lower monthly premium does not necessarily mean lower annual costs. Compare the full expected cost of coverage, including:
- Monthly premium over the year
- Plan deductible and which drugs are subject to it
- Cost-sharing for each prescription
- Pharmacy network and preferred pharmacy pricing
- Whether each medication is covered and its 2027 formulary tier
In 2027, KFF estimates the average deductible at $643 for stand-alone plans, compared with $540 in 2026. The average for Medicare Advantage drug plans is estimated at $489, up from $360. Averages do not describe every plan. The deductible for a specific plan should be checked in its 2027 plan documents.
Plan designs are also changing. KFF finds that most Part D enrollees will face coinsurance rather than copayments for preferred brand and non-preferred drugs. A copayment is a set amount. Coinsurance is a percentage of a drug’s cost. For a prescription with a high price, a percentage-based charge may result in more variable costs than a fixed copayment. A plan with a lower premium could therefore cost more overall if prescriptions have high coinsurance or fall on an expensive tier.
Medicare Plan Finder Walkthrough
Medicare Open Enrollment runs from October 15 through December 7. The plan must receive an enrollment request by December 7 for the change to take effect January 1. The Medicare.gov Open Enrollment page explains the available coverage changes and provides access to plan comparison.
- Read the 2027 notice. Record the new monthly premium and any stated changes to the plan, deductible, drug coverage, pharmacy terms, and cost-sharing.
- Prepare the prescription list. Include every current medication, its dosage, and how often it is filled. Record preferred pharmacies and any relevant plan requirements.
- Open Medicare.gov’s plan comparison tool. Enter the requested location and prescription information. Review available stand-alone drug plans for the 2027 plan year.
- Compare estimated total costs. Review the displayed annual cost estimate, premium, deductible, drug-by-drug cost-sharing, pharmacy options, and coverage details. Do not rank plans by premium alone.
- Check the 2027 formulary and plan documents. Confirm that each medication is covered, identify its tier, and review any restrictions or coinsurance.
- Submit a change by December 7 if switching. Keep the confirmation and review subsequent plan materials. If the current plan remains the selected option, check its 2027 costs and coverage before the new year.
Doing nothing does not preserve the 2026 premium. If the current plan continues and no change is made, the enrollee generally remains in that plan at its new 2027 terms and premium. If a plan is discontinued or changed, the notice should be reviewed for specific transition instructions. Auto-enrollment or plan transitions should not be assumed to preserve the old price or coverage.
Zero-Premium Plans Require Review
A $0 monthly premium in 2026 does not mean a stand-alone drug plan will remain free in 2027. KFF estimates 4.1 million people in current zero-premium stand-alone plans will pay a premium next year if they stay in those plans. The analysis found no zero-premium stand-alone plans available for 2027.
A person currently paying no premium should compare available plans just as other enrollees do. The lowest-premium alternative may not cover the same medicines or produce the lowest total yearly cost.
Why This Enrollment Period Has Added Financial Stakes
The Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration provided additional subsidies to stand-alone plans in 2025 and 2026. CMS ended the demonstration after two years rather than continuing it for the originally planned three-year period. CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz described the program as an industry bailout. KFF identifies the end of subsidies and the associated premium-increase protections as factors that may contribute to higher plan-level premiums.
With the demonstration ended, stand-alone plan premiums are less buffered by those temporary subsidies and reflect plan bids and costs more directly. This does not establish the cause of every plan’s change. It does help explain why individual renewal notices may differ substantially from national averages. In this setting, comparing plans is a practical way to assess the available alternatives and their total costs.
Questions to Ask When Getting Help
A licensed agent or other enrollment resource can assist with comparing plan details. Questions to have answered include:
- Is the current plan being discontinued or changed for 2027?
- What is the estimated total annual cost using the exact prescription list?
- Are all current medications on the 2027 formulary, and at what tier?
- Has the plan changed any medication’s cost-sharing from a copayment to coinsurance?
- What is the deductible, and which drugs are subject to it?
- What happens to the current plan if no action is taken?
A person seeking help from a licensed agent can independently confirm the agent’s active state license and National Producer Number (NPN) before sharing prescription information. Directory records can support an agent search, but should not replace confirmation with the applicable state insurance regulator. Specific plan availability, costs, and coverage should be verified in current plan documents and through Medicare.gov before an enrollment decision.