Medicare part d premiums for stand-alone drug plans are jumping an average of 50% in 2027, and the fix is shopping during open enrollment. Review plans now.
A KFF Health News report by Phil Galewitz, published Oct. 30, describes how one Virginia beneficiary found a lower-cost option after receiving notice of a sharp premium increase. Robert Travis Scott, of Abingdon, was told his AARP-UnitedHealthcare drug plan premium would rise from $39.60 a month in 2026 to $121.90 in 2027. After comparing plans online in late October, he found a Humana plan for $19.30 a month with similar benefits. Scott estimated the change could save about $1,000 over the year.
The example reflects a wider difference between staying in a current stand-alone prescription drug plan and comparing available options. KFF Vice President Juliette Cubanski said “the stakes are higher this year for people with Medicare stand-alone drug coverage if they sit on the sidelines during open enrollment.”
What the 50% Estimate Measures
KFF’s analysis of 2027 Part D premiums and cost sharing, published Oct. 30, estimates the average enrollment-weighted monthly premium for stand-alone prescription drug plans (PDPs) at $51 in 2027, compared with $34 in 2026. That estimate assumes current enrollees keep their existing plans. It does not represent a guaranteed increase for every plan or the final average after people make coverage choices.
KFF estimates that 10.4 million of 13.6 million stand-alone plan enrollees who do not receive low-income subsidies-76%, would have a higher premium in 2027 if they stayed in their current plan. About 2.4 million would face increases greater than $50 a month. By comparison, KFF reports that 38,000 people faced increases above $50 a month for 2026.
There is a separate projection from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). In its 2027 outlook, released Sept. 28, CMS projects the average monthly premium for stand-alone prescription drug plans will rise by less than $1, from $35.09 in 2026 to $36 in 2027. CMS’s figure uses September enrollment, while KFF’s $51 estimate is based on June enrollment and assumes current members remain in their plans. CMS did not explain its calculation method in the release; KFF says it is possible that the CMS estimate accounts for people switching to lower-cost plans.
The two estimates therefore describe different calculations rather than a single settled outcome. KFF expects the actual average after open-enrollment changes to be lower than $51. A similar pattern occurred last year: KFF’s estimate before open enrollment was $44 for 2026, while the weighted average after enrollment changes was $34.
Why Stand-Alone Plan Premiums Are Changing
The Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration ends after 2026. The program provided subsidies to participating stand-alone plan sponsors and limited the maximum permitted premium increase for participating plans. With its end, those supports and the $50 cap on participating-plan premium increases for 2026 no longer apply for the 2027 plan year.
CMS described the demonstration’s end as a return to normal market conditions and said the program should not continue relying on temporary subsidies. KFF identifies the loss of those subsidies and the premium-increase cap as a factor behind the 2027 plan changes. KFF Health News reports that CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz characterized the demonstration as an insurance industry bailout.
The change is also visible among plans that charged no monthly premium in 2026. KFF reports that 4.1 million enrollees without low-income subsidies are in zero-premium stand-alone plans this year, and that no zero-premium stand-alone plans are available for 2027. If those enrollees stay in the same plan, they will have a monthly premium next year. That does not establish which alternative will have the lowest total cost; drug coverage and cost sharing also matter.
Stand-alone PDPs and Medicare Advantage prescription drug plans (MA-PDs) also have different premium structures. KFF estimates an average monthly drug premium of $51 for PDPs and $9 for MA-PDs in 2027, based on current enrollment and the assumption that enrollees do not change plans. Medicare Advantage sponsors can use Medicare rebate dollars to reduce drug premiums, while stand-alone PDP sponsors do not have equivalent rebate funds. The figures describe the drug coverage portion, not the full cost comparison between Medicare coverage options.
How to Compare Plans During Open Enrollment
Medicare’s annual open enrollment period runs through Dec. 7, 2026. Changes made during the period generally take effect Jan. 1, 2027, once the plan receives the enrollment request by the deadline. The Medicare open enrollment page provides information on available changes and plan comparisons.
A practical plan review includes:
- Annual Notice of Change: Review the notice for premium, deductible, formulary, pharmacy, and coverage changes for 2027.
- Medication list: Check each current prescription against the 2027 formulary, including dosage and quantity. A medication’s tier and coverage terms may differ between plans.
- Cost sharing: Compare copayments and coinsurance as well as premiums. KFF reports median coinsurance of 25% for preferred brands and 35% for non-preferred drugs in stand-alone PDPs. The amount paid depends on the drug and plan terms.
- Deductible: Include the deductible in the comparison. KFF estimates an average PDP deductible of $643 for 2027; the standard deductible is $700. Individual plan amounts may differ.
- Pharmacy network: Confirm that the preferred pharmacy is in network and check whether the plan has preferred pharmacies or different cost-sharing arrangements.
- Total estimated cost: Compare projected yearly spending for the medicines used, including premiums, deductible, and medication cost sharing. A lower premium alone does not establish the lowest total cost.
- Plan comparison: Use the Medicare Plan Finder to compare 2027 plans and review official plan details. The enrollment deadline is Dec. 7.
Coinsurance makes plan comparisons especially important. Unlike a fixed copayment, coinsurance is a percentage of a drug’s cost, so the amount paid may vary by medication and plan. Formulary status, tier, network pharmacy, and the plan’s specific terms should be confirmed before selecting coverage. The plan’s own formulary and Summary of Benefits should be reviewed for current details.
When Staying With the Current Plan May Be Reasonable
KFF estimates that 24% of non-low-income-subsidy PDP enrollees will see their premium decrease if they remain in their current plan. Another 33% would see an increase of less than $10 a month. If the premium change is small or favorable and the plan’s formulary, pharmacy access, and cost sharing remain suitable, keeping the plan may be a reasonable outcome after review.
A premium increase alone does not determine whether a plan should be changed. A plan with a low premium could have higher medication costs or less suitable pharmacy access. A plan with a higher premium may still be preferred if its coverage better matches the enrollee’s prescriptions. The comparison should use the actual medication list and 2027 plan information.
A review is particularly important if the current plan’s premium rises sharply, a medication changes formulary tier, coinsurance replaces a fixed copayment, a pharmacy leaves the network, or the plan is no longer offered. The transition from a zero-premium PDP also requires checking alternatives because none are listed for 2027.
Licensed Agent Assistance
A licensed insurance agent may be able to compare formularies, drug tiers, pharmacy networks, premiums, and deductibles across available plans. Assistance and plan availability vary. Before sharing a medication list or other personal information, license status should be independently confirmed with the appropriate state regulator. The Virginia insurance agent directory can be used to locate agent profiles; directory information should not replace independent licensing confirmation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does every Medicare Part D premium increase by 50% in 2027?
No. KFF’s 50% figure is an average estimate for stand-alone PDP enrollees who keep their existing plans. Individual plan premiums vary, and the estimate does not apply uniformly to every enrollee or plan.
Will switching guarantee a lower total cost?
No. Switching may lower a monthly premium, but the total cost also depends on medications, deductible, coinsurance or copayments, pharmacy network, and plan coverage. Each plan’s 2027 formulary and cost-sharing details should be checked.
What is the deadline to change a stand-alone drug plan?
Medicare open enrollment ends Dec. 7, 2026. Medicare must receive the enrollment request by the deadline for changes made during the period to take effect Jan. 1, 2027.
Are zero-premium stand-alone drug plans available in 2027?
KFF reports that no zero-premium stand-alone PDPs are available for 2027. Current members of zero-premium plans should compare available options and confirm the premium and coverage details for any replacement plan.
Premium estimates and plan benefits may change, and current circumstances may differ from the reported figures. Plan costs, formularies, pharmacy networks, and enrollment eligibility should be independently confirmed with Medicare and the plan before a coverage change.